Threat of Tax Shortfall Amid Record Economic Uncertainty; Ministry of Finance Secures Revenue Through Stable Excise and Data-Based Tax Audits

Amid escalating economic uncertainty that pressures foreign investor confidence, the Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu) under Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa implements a dual policy—namely stabilizing tobacco excise tariffs and strengthening Taxpayer (WP) supervision through the latest audit regulations. The following analysis reviews how these policies are designed to balance fiscal compliance, economic stability, and the sustainability of state revenue.

Indonesia’s economic uncertainty hit a record high during this period, causing foreign investors to become increasingly hesitant about investing capital. This condition poses a significant risk to investment prospects and national economic growth. Directly, this challenge impacts state revenue. 2025 tax collection becomes increasingly difficult to achieve, with the risk of a shortfall (revenue deficit) looming, thus requiring the Directorate General of Taxes (DGT) to work extra hard and tighten Taxpayer (WP) supervision to secure the state treasury amidst sluggish economic activity.

The government responds to this challenge with a combination of supervision and sectoral fiscal stabilization strategies. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa implements a dual strategy for the tobacco industry by not raising the excise tariff to create business certainty. On the other hand, this policy aims to be an effective measure to eradicate illegal cigarettes and safeguard state revenue. Meanwhile, to enhance efficiency and fairness in collection, the DGT issues new tax audit rules that require the use of concrete data.

Regarding the new rules, tax experts and observers assess that the specific and concrete data-related tax audit scheme now simplifies Taxpayer (WP) compliance. This more focused regulation provides clarity, strengthens the principle of justice, and improves the accountability of tax authorities in performing their duties, which is critical amid a vulnerable macro-economic condition.

Minister Purbaya's decision to stabilize excise tariffs despite the need for increased revenue is a strategic move to protect the tobacco industry and address the illegal cigarette problem, potentially preserving the State Revenue base. However, the looming risk of a tax shortfall necessitates that the DGT execute its supervisory function very strictly. Fortunately, the new, specific, and data-based tax audit rules provide the DGT with a stronger and fairer instrument while simultaneously making it easier for compliant Taxpayers to undergo the audit process. The high level of economic uncertainty demands that all these policies be accompanied by appropriate stimulus measures to restore foreign investor confidence.

The fiscal dynamics in early October 2025 are dominated by defensive and adaptive efforts. The government, through the Kemenkeu and the DGT, is simultaneously combating the shortfall risk and addressing the illegal excise issue, supported by more transparent and data-based tax supervision reform. Business players must respond to this condition by increasing tax compliance and reporting transparency, as supervision is becoming significantly tighter and more focused. A deep understanding of the stable excise policy and the new tax audit rules is essential for maintaining business sustainability amid high economic uncertainty.