Slowing Liquidity and Business Security Threats: A Spotlight on Capital Outflow and Purchasing Power

Indonesia's economic liquidity condition shows signs of a slowdown, reflecting pressure from both domestic and external factors. Decreasing money supply growth, accompanied by capital outflow and rising inflation, poses significant challenges to business stability and corporate security. Amidst this pressure, the government is striving to maintain public purchasing power through the distribution of Direct Cash Assistance (BLT). This discussion focuses on the factors influencing the slowdown in money supply, the risks to business security, and the government's steps to maintain economic stability toward the year-end.

Bank Indonesia (BI) reported that economic liquidity, or broad money supply (M2), grew slower in October 2025, recorded at Rp9,783.1 trillion or growing 7.7% year-on-year (YoY). This slowdown in money supply growth is largely caused by significant capital outflow from the domestic financial market. This capital outflow is triggered by global uncertainty, especially the Fed's interest rate policy, which leads global investors to withdraw funds from emerging markets like Indonesia, in addition to a decline in net foreign assets growth and slower bank credit disbursement.

Meanwhile, the long-term impact of inflation highlights a drastic decline in the real value of money, evidenced by an economic analysis showing that the purchasing power value of Rp5 million in 2000 was substantially greater than Rp10 million in 2025. This decline in real value necessitates a smart investment strategy. The impact of economic instability also emerges as the most pressing security threat for companies and executives in Indonesia. Based on global research, 71% of Chief Security Officers (CSOs) in Indonesia assess that economic turmoil potentially disrupts operational stability and the safety of company leaders.

Facing these challenges of liquidity and inflation, fiscal officials like Finance Minister Purbaya are confident that public purchasing power will recover and boost economic growth. This confidence is based on the accelerated distribution of the Prosperous Direct Cash Assistance (BLT), which is expected to be immediately absorbed by Beneficiary Families (KPM), serving as a fiscal stimulus to maintain consumption.

This dynamic has broad implications, ranging from monetary stability to corporate security. The slowdown in money supply growth due to capital outflow indicates market liquidity tightening, which could restrain the pace of bank credit disbursement. For companies, economic instability identified as the primary security threat necessitates strengthened risk management and tighter executive protection, as well as the importance of collaboration with the government to maintain social stability. Meanwhile, the decline in real purchasing power (as shown by the comparison of money values between 2000 and 2025) emphasizes the urgency of fiscal stimulus policies like BLT to support consumption and create an economic multiplier effect toward the end of the year.

The overall news today indicates that Indonesia's monetary and fiscal authorities are struggling against liquidity pressure triggered by external factors (capital outflow) and the long-term impact of inflation. BI and OJK must closely monitor the money supply condition to ensure market liquidity remains maintained. Concurrently, the government relies on BLT distribution as a short-term strategy to preserve purchasing power and avoid an economic slowdown. Business actors and investors must be vigilant against the increasing security risks due to economic volatility, and prioritize investment in assets that yield returns above the inflation rate to protect the real value of their wealth.