Danantara Targets Rp360 Trillion in Profit and Kadin Sets US$330 Billion Export Target: Can Indonesia Achieve 6 Percent Growth Amidst Fiscal Risks and Regional Synergy?

In an effort to drive economic growth, Danantara Indonesia is targeting a net profit of Rp360 trillion by the end of 2026. From this amount, approximately Rp200 trillion (55.5%) is planned to be reinvested through two entities: Danantara Investment Management (DIM) and the Danantara Development Management Fund (DDMF). DIM will focus on commercial projects with a higher degree of readiness, while DDMF is directed toward financing long-term strategic projects oriented toward the public interest.

This strategic move is expected to support Indonesia's 6% economic growth target in 2027, alongside a projected 7% growth in investment or Gross Fixed Capital Formation (PMTB). However, optimizing Danantara's role also faces hurdles, particularly concerning potential quasi-fiscal financing, financial management transparency, and contingent liability risks for the government. These concerns are mounting amidst a projected 2026 State Budget (APBN) deficit of Rp734.3 trillion—equivalent to 2.85% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—and rising global oil prices that threaten to pressure the state budget further. Therefore, the separation of roles between the APBN and Danantara must be backed by rigorous governance, transparency, and adequate investment risk management.

Beyond domestic investment optimization, boosting exports serves as another critical lever to strengthen the national economy. Kadin Indonesia, through its We Buy from Indonesia initiative, is targeting a 10% export increase, aiming to push annual figures from around US$300 billion to US$330 billion. Roughly US$60 billion of this export value stems from primary commodities such as coal, crude palm oil, and steel. Meanwhile, the remaining US$240 billion is supported by the broader industrial and manufacturing sectors. To achieve this ambitious target, Kadin is heavily pushing for market expansion into the European Union, Central Asia, and North America to deepen the penetration of Indonesian products in international markets.

This initiative is not solely directed at inflating export values but also at expanding the involvement of domestic business actors, particularly MSMEs, within global supply chains. A robust increase in exports is expected to directly contribute to strengthening foreign exchange reserves and maintaining the stability of the rupiah. Furthermore, elevating national product competitiveness and securing long-term investments are deemed essential to withstanding global geopolitical pressures and safeguarding economic resilience.

On the external front, investment climate certainty remains a vital factor in supporting economic growth. The Indonesian government, through the Ministry of Investment and Downstreaming/Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), ensured that investment cooperation commitments with Singapore remain fully intact despite recent regional frictions. Bilateral communication and coordination are being continuously strengthened to protect the sustainability of the economic agenda and strategic projects between the two nations. In a recent meeting between the Minister of Investment/Head of BKPM and Singapore's Foreign Minister, both parties discussed the continuity of economic cooperation and enhanced coordination across various commercial sectors. Singaporean authorities also affirmed they remain highly open to investment opportunities in Indonesia.

The Ministry of Investment and Downstreaming has actively opened dialogue channels for Singaporean investors to provide constructive feedback regarding the business climate in Indonesia. This step is expected to increase the efficiency of investment activities, solidify investor confidence, and maintain the flow of capital into various national priority sectors.

Ultimately, the optimization of investments through Danantara, the push for higher exports via Kadin's initiatives, and the strengthening of Indonesia–Singapore investment cooperation underscore the critical need for synergy among the government, SOEs, and the private sector in driving national economic growth. The success of these multifaceted efforts will heavily depend on the quality of investment governance, the competitiveness of domestic products, and a predictable business climate capable of sustaining investor trust while supporting inclusive, long-term economic growth.